Background Information
The United States of America is divided into 435 congressional districts, each of which is allocated one seat in the House of Representatives. Every ten years, each district is re-apportioned to reflect changes in population and hence the power balance between the states. Each state is also allocated a number of electoral votes based on its population. The total number of electoral votes is 538 and it is these votes that decide the outcome of a presidential election.
The geographical divide between states is established by the classic ‘west of the Mississippi River’ boundary. This line of separation divides the country roughly into two halves, with states to the east of the Mississippi forming the eastern half. States east of the Mississippi River currently make up 229 of the 538 electoral votes.
Relevant Data
The following states east of the Mississippi River are allocated electoral votes under the current system. Data is collated from the National Archives and Records Administration.
Alabama – 9 electoral votes.
Arkansas – 6 electoral votes.
Connecticut – 7 electoral votes.
Washington D.C. – 3 electoral votes.
Delaware – 3 electoral votes.
Florida – 29 electoral votes.
Georgia – 16 electoral votes.
Illinois – 20 electoral votes.
Indiana – 11 electoral votes.
Kentucky – 8 electoral votes.
Maine – 4 electoral votes.
Maryland – 10 electoral votes.
Massachusetts – 11 electoral votes.
Michigan – 16 electoral votes.
Minnesota – 10 electoral votes.
Mississippi – 6 electoral votes.
New Hampshire – 4 electoral votes.
New Jersey – 14 electoral votes.
New York – 29 electoral votes.
North Carolina – 15 electoral votes.
Ohio – 18 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania – 20 electoral votes.
Rhode Island – 4 electoral votes.
South Carolina – 9 electoral votes.
Tennessee – 11 electoral votes.
Vermont- 3 electoral votes.
Virginia – 13 electoral votes.
West Virginia – 5 electoral votes.
Expert Perspectives
Experts have identified several trends in the way that states east of the Mississippi gain or lose electoral votes every decade. According to Professor Joseph Skibberg, of Georgetown University, states such as California, Colorado and Utah have been gaining ground on traditional swing states such as Ohio and Florida, while states in the Deep South, such as Mississippi and Alabama, have lost out as a result of population shifts and economic changes.
He went on to explain that there is an element of political maneuverings to this, as the Democratic Party has traditionally held a stronghold in the Midwest, where states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois have increased their electoral votes. As such, it appears that the Republican Party has become increasingly reliant on its strongholds in the Deep South, and less so on the swing states east of the Mississippi.
National Analysis
At the national level, it is clear that states east of the Mississippi form an important part of the electoral equation and are seen as key battleground states. The last three presidential elections have been won or lost on the votes of states east of the Mississippi. This trend appears to have held true in recent years, with states such as Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Pennsylvania all deciding the outcome of the 2012 election.
The importance of these states was evident in the 2020 election, where President Trump was able to gain the upper hand in key battleground states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, largely on the strength of his support from rural voters. This allowed him to gain the necessary 74 electoral votes to win the presidency in the face of a strong challenge from former Vice President Joe Biden.
Municipal Analysis
On a local level, the number of electoral votes east of the Mississippi is also significant. There are a total of 229 electoral votes in states east of the Mississippi. This includes a total of 129 in the Midwest. Much of this comes from Ohio and Pennsylvania, both of which have gained electoral votes in recent years.
In addition, there are 61 electoral votes in the South and 39 in the East. In the South, states such as Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia have acquired electoral votes in recent years. In the East, states such as New York and New Jersey have been steady contributors of electoral votes in presidential elections.
Political Implications
The significance of the states east of the Mississippi was also highlighted in 2020, when former Vice President Biden was able to sweep the rustbelt region of the Midwest on the strength of his support from states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. This helped him to gain the necessary electoral votes to win the election, despite President Trump’s strong performance in states such as Florida and Texas.
The importance of states east of the Mississippi was also highlighted in the 2016 election, when President Trump was able to gain the upper hand in many of the key battleground states on the strength of his support from rural communities. This helped him to gain the necessary electoral votes to win the election in the face of strong opposition from Secretary Hillary Clinton.
Regional Implications
The number of electoral votes east of the Mississippi River can also have significant implications at a regional level. For instance, in many of the Midwest states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, a gain of even one electoral vote can have a significant impact on who wins the election in those states.
Similarly, in states such as Mississippi and Alabama, a loss of even one electoral vote can have a major impact. This was evident in 2016, when Mississippi lost one electoral vote due to population shifts and demographic changes. This resulted in Mississippi dropping from six to five electoral votes, and had a major impact on how that state voted in that election.
Demographic Impact
The number of electoral votes east of the Mississippi River can also have a major impact on how demographic changes affect the outcome of an election. As the population of states east of the Mississippi shifts and changes, the number of electoral votes that those states possess can have a major impact on who wins the election.
This was demonstrated in 2020, when voter turnout in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan was significantly higher than in previous years. This higher turnout allowed the Democratic Party to gain the upper hand in those states, resulting in President Trump losing the election in spite of his strong performance in states further south. This highlights the importance of states east of the Mississippi in determining the outcome of a presidential election.
Census Implications
The Census is held every ten years and its results determine the number of congressional seats and electoral votes each state is allocated. This can have a major impact on the number of electoral votes east of the Mississippi River.
For instance, California gained one electoral vote in the 2020 Census, while Florida and Texas gained several. This was in spite of the significant population shift east of the Mississippi River that took place over the previous decade. This highlights the importance of understanding how the dynamics of population shifts can impact a state’s electoral vote total.
Economic Implications
The number of electoral votes east of the Mississippi also have an impact on the economy of those states. The electoral power of these states can help to secure investments and government aid that can help to boost their economies.
For example, states like Ohio and Pennsylvania have been able to benefit from investments in manufacturing and infrastructure, while coastal states such as Florida and Virginia have been able to secure funding for port development and tourism promotion. This has allowed the economies of those states to thrive, and has provided them with a political edge when it comes to securing electoral votes.
